International tourism experienced modest growth in the first half of 2026, with global arrivals increasing by 0.4%. This growth occurred despite challenges such as Middle East insecurity, high oil prices, and inflation. The World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism reported an estimated 690 million international tourists between January and June 2026, a 3 million rise compared to the same period in 2025.
In June, global arrivals fell by 3%, driven by a 6% decline in Western Europe, partly due to a heatwave. South-East Asia saw a 5% drop in arrivals, attributed to weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, air travel disruptions through the Middle East, and higher travel costs. Some destinations in Oceania also experienced a 6% decrease in June due to Typhoon Sinlaku in the second quarter.
The Middle East conflict has affected destinations far beyond the region, emphasizing the need for global resilience during crises. UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais observed, “The latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile.”
During the first half of 2026, Africa and Europe recorded solid growth in arrivals, with increases of 4% and 3%, respectively. The Americas saw a 2% rise, though results varied across sub-regions. Asia and the Pacific grew by 1% but remained 11% below 2019 levels due to air connectivity issues, higher airfares, and uncertainty.
While North-East Asia grew by 3%, South Asia and South-East Asia recorded declines of 5% and 1%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2025. The Middle East saw a 22% drop, directly impacted by the conflict. Despite these challenges, air traffic disruptions eased in May and June following a ceasefire, leading to the reopening of some air routes and an uneven rebound in consumer sentiment.
Given the latest data and geopolitical volatility, international tourist arrivals are now projected to grow by 1% to 2% globally in 2026, down from UN Tourism’s January forecast of 3% to 4%. This revised outlook depends on the conflict’s duration and its effects on oil prices and inflation.